Selected work

Built, not theorized

A sample of the systems and research behind the advisory practice. Methods and write-ups available on request.

System · macOS / Windows

Real-time trading & risk application

A desktop application valuing a trading portfolio across futures, stocks, and options in real time — computing VaR, CVaR, and stress scenarios as prices move, not in an overnight batch. Designed, engineered, and operated end-to-end.

  • Tick-by-tick portfolio valuation
  • VaR, CVaR, and custom stress scenarios live
  • Options analytics: pricing and Greeks
Analytics · Energy futures

Curve, spread & seasonality tooling

Daily analytics across crude, natural gas, and refined products: term-structure dynamics, near-minus-far calendar spreads, seasonal patterns, and refining crack spreads — the lens used for the daily market read.

  • CL, NG, RB, HO curve and spread matrices
  • Refining crack spreads (RB*CL, HO*CL)
  • EIA storage vs. five-year seasonal norms
Research · Quantitative

Stat-arb & volatility studies

Pair-spread research with honest verdicts — including studies that killed the idea. The ZB/GC spread failed validation (unstable hedge, no convergence); the ZB/ZN curve pair validated on correlation and mean-reversion diagnostics. Negative results included, always.

  • Cointegration, Hurst, half-life diagnostics
  • Historical vs. implied volatility frameworks
  • Options concentration and positioning reads

Method

How the research gets done

Every study starts from a tradeable question and ends with a verdict — including "don't trade this." The machinery is Python-based, data comes from institutional-grade feeds, and results are documented with their assumptions, costs, and limitations stated up front.

That discipline is what advisory clients are buying: not cleverness, but the habit of killing bad ideas early and sizing the survivors honestly.

  • Hypothesis first, data second, verdict always
  • Transaction costs and slippage in every backtest
  • Out-of-sample thinking before live capital
  • Negative results published, not buried

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